Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
